Cyprus property: ten-year review and five-year outlook.

The Cyprus property market has completed a full cycle in the last decade. Between 2015 and 2025 the number of contracts of sale deposited at District Land Offices rose from 4,952 to 18,114 — a 3.7× increase and the strongest year since 2007. Transaction value reached €6.5bn in 2025 against €1.9bn in 2015.

Prices took far longer to follow. The Central Bank of Cyprus Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) was still falling in 2015–2016 and only regained its 2010 nominal level around 2025. Aggregate growth over the decade is therefore modest in real terms, but the aggregate conceals a sharp divergence: apartments are roughly 27% above their 2010 base (Limassol apartments +53%), while houses have barely moved.

Momentum is still building. The first seven months of 2026 produced 12,047 contracts, up 14.1% year on year, with every month ahead of its 2025 counterpart. The CBC index rose 7.5% year on year in Q1 2026 — apartments +10.8%, houses +3.0%.

Central forecast: volumes plateau rather than reverse. Roughly 20,000–21,000 contracts in 2026, low single-digit growth from 2027, and a plateau in the 21,000–23,000 range by 2028–2030. Price growth decelerates from about 7% in 2026 to 2.5–3.5% by 2029–2030 as the current permit surge converts into completed apartment stock. Cumulative nominal residential price growth 2026–2030 in the base case: +20% to +25%.

* 2017 derived from the reported +6% increase into 2018; treat as approximate.

The decade splits into five phases:

• 2015–2017 — recovery. Volumes tripled off a devastated base, driven by the Cyprus Investment Programme and the first wave of NPL-related restructurings.
• 2018–2019 — consolidation. Growth normalised to 6–12%, with foreign buyers already close to half of activity.
• 2020 — pandemic contraction. A 23% fall concentrated in the first half; the investment programme was abolished in November 2020.
• 2021–2023 — the relocation boom. Two consecutive ~30% years, then +16%. Non-EU purchases surged 82% in 2022 as ICT, fintech and shipping firms relocated staff, largely to Limassol. This is the structural break of the decade.
• 2024–2026 — broad-based expansion. Growth now runs on both the domestic and foreign legs, a materially healthier composition than the 2021–2022 surge.

Transfers have flattened (+4% in 2025) while contracts accelerated (+14.7%). The gap is the pipeline: off-plan and under-construction stock contracted but not yet transferable. January–July 2026 saw €2.70bn of completed transfers across 12,857 properties, with Limassol alone at €1.084bn — 40 cents of every euro spent on property in Cyprus.

A caveat on headline figures. DLS “sales” include non-arm’s-length agreements — loan restructurings, repossessions and debt-to-asset swaps — which are not published separately. The distortion was largest in 2016–2019 and has diminished, but mortgage loan restructurings rose 74% in 2025, so some contamination persists.

Compounded, that is roughly +39% nominal from end-2014 to end-2025. Against a 2010 base of 100, however, the overall index only recovered its base level around 2025 — the 2011–2014 decline was that deep. In inflation-adjusted terms the aggregate market has not recovered its pre-crisis peak.

The apartment/house divergence

Drivers: foreign and investor demand concentrated in compact urban and coastal stock; relocated professionals buying apartments rather than houses; the €300,000 permanent residency threshold sitting squarely in the new-apartment price band; and construction economics that favour apartment blocks.

Yields have not compressed. RICS/KPMG record apartment yields at 5.45% in Q4 2025 against 5.41% a year earlier, and houses at 2.96% against 3.03%. Flat yields alongside 10% capital growth means rents rose in step — the price movement is income-supported rather than pure yield compression, a healthier signal than the 2006–2008 run-up.

Nationally: apartments €248k (2024: €240k), houses €356k (2024: €346k). Land fields rose sharply to a €150k average from €115k, while land plots fell to €212k from €253k — a mix effect worth caution when using land comparables.

2025 composition was 66% non-EU and 34% EU, concentrated in Paphos (32%), Limassol (28%), Nicosia (25%), Famagusta (9%) and Larnaca (6%). The notable 2026 shift is the EU leg: EU-national purchases rose 28.5% in H1 2026 against 19.6% for third-country buyers. That diversification reduces exposure to any single-country sanctions or geopolitical event.

Foreign buyers took 20.4% of completed transfers island-wide in H1 2026, but 41.2% in Paphos against 9.1% in Nicosia. Paphos is the district most exposed to an external shock; Nicosia the least. The high end (≥€1.5m single residential) has plateaued at 203 transactions worth €550m in 2025, well below the 2017–2018 peak.

This is the most important forward-looking variable in the report. A 79% jump in permitted residential units in early 2026, on top of a 35% increase in licensed residential surface through 2025, will deliver a substantial new apartment cohort with the usual 24–36 month lag from permit to completion. 2028–2029 is when supply meaningfully catches demand. Fast-track licensing shortens the front end further; labour shortages and a rising materials index push the other way.

Mortgage rates. New housing loan rates averaged 4.95% in 2024 and 4.42% in 2025, troughing near 3.09–3.15% in March 2026. Net new residential mortgage lending reached €353.6m in Q1 2026, up 24.5% year on year. The cycle has since turned: the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June 2026, and Cyprus rates followed to 3.23%. The trough is behind us, so affordability tightens from 2027 — hitting domestic and EU buyers first, while the cash-dominated non-EU segment is largely insulated.

Macro. Real GDP grew 3.9% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025, with 2.6% forecast for 2026. Inflation was 0.8% in 2025. The sovereign rating was upgraded to A/A3/A− across all five agencies. Real estate and construction contributed 16% of gross value added in 2025 and grew 6.9%, the fastest of any sector.

Tax changes effective 1 January 2026: stamp duty on contracts of sale abolished; the special defence contribution on rental income abolished; capital gains lifetime exemptions raised (general €30,000, agricultural land €50,000, primary residence €150,000) with the 20% rate unchanged; and CGT scope widened to shares where 20% or more of value derives from Cyprus immovable property, closing the share-deal route. The personal income tax-free threshold rose to €22,000.

Assumptions: the easing cycle ended in June 2026 and rates drift into a 3.5–4.5% band across 2027–29; net immigration and corporate relocation continue at a slower but positive rate; the permit surge converts to completions from 2028; no change to the €300,000 residency threshold before 2028; and no regional escalation disrupting travel or capital flows.

Prices decelerate from roughly 7% in 2026 to 2.5–3.5% by 2029–2030, for cumulative nominal growth of +20% to +25% across 2026–2030. Apartments continue to outperform houses, but the gap narrows as new apartment stock completes.

Downside: apartment prices stall rather than fall — Cyprus vendors historically withdraw stock rather than discount — with any correction appearing first in Paphos and the ≥€1.5m Limassol segment. The domestic leg, now roughly 60% of contracts, is the buffer that did not exist in 2013. Upside: faster ECB easing and continued relocation could take 2027 volumes to 23,000 and cumulative price growth to 2030 to +35%.

• The contract-to-transfer backlog is the near-term signal: a large pipeline of contracted but untransferred stock is already banked regardless of what new sales do in 2027.
• Apply the apartment/house split explicitly. A single district growth rate is misleading when the segments are running at 10.8% and 3.0%.
• Flat yields alongside double-digit capital growth is the defensible narrative — rents moved with prices.
• Treat 2025 land comparables with care; much of the move is a mix effect.
• Plan for a plateau, not a peak: 21,000–22,000 contracts a year rather than continued 14% growth.

For district-level 2027 estimates and a worked allocation, read Report III, or speak to an advisor through our contact page.

Department of Lands & Surveys; PwC Cyprus, Cyprus Real Estate Market — Year in Review 2025 (April 2026); Central Bank of Cyprus RPPI Q1 2026 and lending data; RICS Cyprus Property Index with KPMG; CYSTAT building permits and construction materials index; European Commission forecasts; Law 239(I)/2025 and the 2026 tax reform package; BuySell / Cyprus Mail analysis of DLS data.

Forecasts are scenario-based projections derived from the historical series and the stated assumptions. They are analytical inputs, not predictions, and should be re-based against each quarterly CBC release and monthly DLS publication. Nothing here is personal investment advice.